Seasonality-aware budgets: planning for demand shifts
Rostyslav C.
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May 28, 2026
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6 min read
Contents
Most accounts run flat monthly budgets into demand curves that swing 3–5x across the year. The money wasted in troughs is the money missing at peaks.
Demand shifts are predictable
Google Trends, last year’s search-term data and your own sales history give the demand curve for almost any niche. Peaks and troughs repeat within a 1–2 week window year over year — travel, fashion, home goods, gifting all follow known calendars.
Budgeting to the curve
Set quarterly budgets as a share of forecast demand, not as equal months. Scale aggressively into the ramp (2–3 weeks before peak, while CPMs are still low), hold through peak, cut hard after — the post-peak week is the most overspent week in most accounts.
CRO work belongs in the trough: test funnels when traffic is cheap, so conversion is highest when traffic is expensive.
Rostyslav C.
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